Understanding Weather… Not predicting

What happened?
Although some rain was recorded during the past week, the promising feature is still to come. The matter is the upper anticyclone that crept in following the departure of the zone of thundery activity to the northeast. This feature has blocked the weather pattern and put impending developments on hold. The first upper air vortex has collapsed but a new system has formed and lies west of the subcontinent
The normal range for which a weather forecast or outlook can be provided with a level of confidence is very limited. Even 24 hours is sometimes just too far ahead. Further ranges in time (hours and days-not weeks and months) depend heavily on the reliability and abundance of weather data coming from an appropriate spread in weather stations.

In southern Africa the spread of weather stations is limited and has decreased in fact, Instrument readings, as provided by automatic weather stations, are valuable supplements but cannot replace the value of taking daily upper air radiosonde readings.
The arrival of cold air/front can be timed and that passage placed on the current synoptic map, this verifies the work of the duty forecaster. But visual observations cannot be performed by any computer: the cloud types and heights, ranges of both visibility and the present weather are necessary bricks for the long-range forecast to be prepared. Without this necessary work being on hand, the forecast tends to be unreliable. The moist air persisting across the northern half of the country has been not as rainfall productive as one could have well expected. The other stark feature is failure of March as a key core month across much of the southern parts.

What’s coming?
The upper anticyclone is giving way and the new cut-off vortex, a disturbance of note on a weather map, approaches by today (Friday) The rainfall prospects are, according to the computer’s analysis, very promising across the weekend, at least, and for just about the entire country. Whether or not the event of 18 January, rain reported from Oranjemund to Katima and from Ruacana to Ariamsvlei, will be repeated is not impossible, but the rainfall is likely to be widespread in its occurrence. Falls of considerable intensity appear possible. The rain-bearing system should weaken and depart by mid week.