Enough square metres for a herd of elephants

It is official: Windhoek is now a city. And this thanks to our propensity for spending.
With the opening of the Maerua Mall extension this week, we have now attained the prime retailing nation status. Granted Maerua Mall cannot be compared to the super malls of South Africa, or overseas, but I have been in dozens of malls in first world countries, all lessor in size and appearance than Maerua.

I also think, now, for the first time: Can we really call Maerua a mall in the truest sense of the word? Covering more than forty thousand square metres, it constitutes a sizeable chunk of Windhoek retail real estate and is definitely the biggest, grandest and most modern shopping complex in the country. Indeed, I would venture to say that Maerua Mall is unlike anything similar in Gaberones, Harare, Lusaka, and maybe even Luanda. And it holds its number one position, not by a mere margin, but comfortably, many times over the other contenders.

In my mind, and going by the statistics, it compares very favourably with well-known shopping spots like Tygerberg near Cape Town, and Fourways in Gauteng. When I see the developments in the retail sector, not only in Windhoek, but in many Namibian towns, I often wonder where all the people who are supposed to support the shops and businesses in the shopping complexes, come from. When one looks at the composition of our Gross Domestic Product, it not without surprise that one notices the economic sector, Wholesale and Retail, is the second biggest contributor to GDP. What's more, it is second only to government. At above 11%, Wholesale and Retail is bigger than mining, fishing, agriculture, and presumably, also the tourism industry. Not counting Government Services, Wholesale and Retail is the biggest true private sector contributor to the economy. In 2004, the latest available full-year statistics, our love of spending contributed a whopping N$1.7 billion to the economy as a whole.
Where does all the money come from to support these statistics?

It is an unproven theory, but I suspect that many years of careful planning around developing and protecting the labour force, may now be paying off. Any economic sector that consistently contributes more than 10% to GDP is a sector of note. And Wholesale/Retail and Mining (with Quarrying) are the only two sectors (excluding government), to maintain this status. Real Estate comes close but has never actually breached the magic 10% mark. Occupying this position is only possible, if a large number of the population is gainfully employed with a disposable income that enables individuals to spend.

Another part of the puzzle can be found in the demand for credit figures. Since independence, we have established a reputation for a significant demand for credit. The growth in credit has always hovered around 13% to 14%, but since the end of 2003, when the bank rate first went below 8%, growth in credit extension to the private sector has jumped to 19% and during some months, even above 20%. This is not all for private consumption, but obviously a not insignificant slice of this growth in credit, will also go for consumer goods. Then there is the massive appreciation of property values, which I suspect, in too many cases, have artificially increased the credit available to private households, and we may see this reflected in the Wholesale and Retail statistics.
In 2001, Windhoek had a counted population of just over 230 000. Growing that by around 3% per year, and making provision for an influx from smaller towns and rural areas, I guess we are now around 280 000, perhaps even 300 000 or slightly more. There are no dependable statistics to indicate Windhoek's population's real size, but the rate at which the city is expanding, and the rate at which shopping complexes have gone up, and are going up, a population of 300 000 is not unrealistic. One also notices this at month ends, and in the traffic.

While I am cracking my skull trying to break down and understand the retail sector, most Windhoekers, like myself, are only too happy to patronise the shops in Maerua Mall. I like the fact that it is the only shopping mall in the country so big that you can actually spend some time just strolling and buying with the eyes. Then there is the after-hours and recreation element. When one leaves the gym, what better way of restoring one's balance, than going for a mighty steak in one of the restaurants, and afterwards, a nice movie.