Understanding Weather... not predicting
What happened?

The arrival of the anticyclone, affecting surface and alto level circulations, last Friday drove the active trough zone to the north and east. However, the presence of the upper section of this trough was visible as the extensive sheet of Cirrus cloud remaining overhead and to the north and east. Slowly this band withdrew. The shades and tinges of soft reds and pinks in both the sunrise and sunset skies were worth taking time to appreciate. Friday was marked by cool to cold air as the eastern edges of the anticyclone moved in. This air emanated from a mere 45oS but temperatures closer to winter ranges: 3 to 5 C were noted. The rain-prone area lying across the northeast did not appear very active and only moderate falls have been noted. The observer at Okaukuejo reported that a storm with considerable hail fall occurred some 50km southward on the road to Outjo. Measures of hail depth came to some 25 mm at the centre of the hail bed. The date of this occurrence in unclear. But hail usually reserves its intrusion for occasions when the airmass is more unfavourable than favourable. The storm area builds while massive up and down draughts occur within the cloud. Eventually, the one downdraught proves too much and breaks through a weaker up draught and the hailstones reach the surface long before the much warmer air can thaw them out. The anticyclonic core lay to the east by Monday and clouds returned to the afternoon skies. Tuesday showed rather moister air was arriving and cloud depth was thick enough to enable sufficient development to occur for fall streaks to be visible. This weather type “rain falling but not reaching the ground” can often occur in late afternoon/early evening skies when cooling cause the cloud to be “over condensed”, hence moisture is precipitated: rain drops, sometimes hail. The rain looks grey while the hail is sharply white. By Wednesday a band of moist air was deep enough to enable thundery showers to develop. The heaviest recorded fall was at Karibib: 15mm and with enough lightning. A young man was either struck by or was very close to a lightning strike and ended up in hospital! A reminder to the rest of us, that lightning has no friends and can strike and hit. Indoors or under shelter is the wisest place to be during thunderstorms.

What's coming?
Today sees the moister air retreat northwards. The thundershower prospect remains good for the Kavango/Caprivi area and some rather heavier falls are possible. Very light showers can occur as far south as the Windhoek area. Hot and dry weather, typical November weather, should prevail elsewhere. This appears to be this week's pattern.