Editor's Desk
Our anticipated uranium projects will not go ahead, except one
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- Daniel Steinmann
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Bannerman Resources, the Australian company driving one of four new uranium projects in Namibia, recently said at a mining conference, the price for uranium U308 needs to be between US$75 and US$90 per pound (0.454kg) to drive any new investment in greenfields uranium mines.
Hidden in this seemingly neutral observation and analysis, are many serious consequences for the further development of the uranium sector in Namibia. Following a simple line of deductive logic, the syllogistic conclusion shows that the development of new uranium mines will only be considered once the price exceeds US$75 per pound.
For us the risk lies in a protracted delay of new projects due to the uncertainty of market movement. At the same conference, the Bannerman CEO said: “The market has to look seriously at those companies that have taken their projects to definitive feasibility stage because this is where the cost realities come in for future uranium projects.It gets rid of the blue sky numbers at the scoping study levels and sets the range at where new uranium mines can be viable.” And at this point, he stated the cost reality - uranium below 75, no new mine.
So it seems the market price of uranium is the key factor and not necessarily the ore grade. Of course, the ore grade is important, the higher the yields the more diluted the overheads, but the long term trend in the price cycle, is clearly the determinant for calculating the break-even line.
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Down a few more rungs on the ranking ladder
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- Daniel Steinmann
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What makes Namibia persistently move down in the rankings of the Global Competitiveness Report while our next-door neighbour, Botswana, has managed to consolidate its ranking and actually moved up one notch in the latest report.
The answer to this vexing question is neither straightforward nor simple. An answer of sorts will probably consist of as many nuances as there are analysts and policy makers trying to dissect and understand the growing anomaly between two economies that are very similar in constitution and prospects.
First, it must be pointed out that Botswana also experienced a general decline in rankings from 2008 to 2011. From 2007 to 2008, Botswana jumped 20 places to position number 56. Then it slid back every year to end in position number 80 last year. In this year’s report, it managed to edge up one place and is now ranked 79th.
But Namibia only managed to achieve position number 92, falling 18 places over the last two years. Namibia is now ranked 13 places lower than Botswana, presenting an obvious paradox as the similarities between the two sister countries far outweigh the few isolated asymmetries.
“government officials are venal, incompetent, and interested solely in getting lucrative appointments”
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The headline hits one in the face. I could not help lifting it from an opinion article originating from Europe but analysing institutional capacity in China. After all, it seems, governments the world over are the same and populated by similar creatures.
The ineptitude of government officials, especially those responsible for policy formulation, are usually hidden by an army of bureaucrats and technocrats. When economic conditions are stable and the growth path is guaranteed, the inability to steer the economy does not matter much. The actual hard work of making business and growing prosperity is the domain of the private sector. As long as the fiscus is not impaired, policy becomes a demoted priority. But when markets are in turmoil and economies flounder, leadership ability coupled to visionary leadership, becomes so much more important. This, in my mind, is a universal phenomenon and not a particular trait of southern Africa.
Deluded as hell, but the propaganda battle must go on
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- Daniel Steinmann
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“We also condemn the illegal unilateral economic sanctions imposed on Zimbabwe and Iran by the West. We call for the immediate and unconditional removal of these illegal measures.” - Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hon Utoni Nuyoma addressing a meeting of the non-aligned movement in Iran.
“So the mobile wave is about the rise in power of American software companies exporting their ways in English, sold in dollars, running on American technology controlled by companies like Apple and Google to everybody else on Earth. And by the way, we’re going to spread the American language, the American currency, and also American values.” Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR), a business intelligence company, explaining his future investment views in an investment newsletter.
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Summit assigns itself jurisdictional powers it does not have
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“Summit considered the Report of the Committee of Ministers of Justice/Attorneys General and the observations by the Council of Ministers and resolved that a new Protocol on the Tribunal should be negotiated and that its mandate should be confined to interpretation of the SADC Treaty and Protocols relating to disputes between Member States”
Any meaningful re-instatement of the SADC Tribunal, in fact, the very existence of the Tribunal in its agreed form, was put on the back-burner at last week’s SADC Heads of State summit with this bland sounding resolution. But there is much upwelling behind the scenes, with mounting pressure from government leaders who do not recognise Mugabe’s illegal reign in Zimbabwe.
Listed as Resolution 24 in a list of 30, this position is the first clear indication what low priority has been assigned by the heads of state to the most important legal institution for the region’s successful integration.
This does not mean the fate of the Tribunal is sealed, it only means the treaty that established the Tribunal is regarded null and void by the heads of state, at least by the summit, and that a new treaty must be negotiated, one in which the protection of human rights is excluded. This process will certainly not take less than two years, and if Mugabe gets his way, it can be delayed for perhaps as much as five years.
It must not be forgotton, the independent functioning of the SADC Tribunal became a major embarrassment to Mugabe after he failed to obtain a majority in his own country’s presidential election.
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