| The Rand is just a round flat shiny metal disc |
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| Written by Daniel Steinmann | ||||
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Come 21 June every year, I am fond of saying that the winter is over. This date marks the northern summer solstice, thus the middle of winter for us. Of course, winter will not be over by Saturday, but it always helps me get through the second half with much less agony over the cold. In any case, in Namibia winter is over so wie so by the second half of July.
I think my winter eye-blind has much in common with the interest rates
cycle. One never really knows when it is over until it has turned and
remained in its intended direction for a while. But it helps me to get
through what I believe remains of the cycle by believing we have now
reached a halfway point. The financial winter is far from over. It is always a dangerous exercise to call interest rates, but with a bit of common sense, at least one can try and anticipate the turning point. I believe that it is inevitable that the Namibian bank rate will eventually go up, perhaps another percentage point, spread over two increments. I also believe the end of this winter is in sight. If I dissect the governor’s MPC statement of Thursday, I sense that the central bank, just as any other institution, realises we are “on hold” and that little will change until we see some dramatic improvements globally as well as regionally. But the most supportive part of the bigger picture comes from the statistics on Namibia, which, to my mind, clearly indicate that conditions for growth locally are far better than in our powerful southern neighbour. |
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