Perhaps it is a cliché to say things will get worse before they get better, but I believe in our case it will still prove to be true. But let me first assess the situation here at home. Although the Bank of Namibia has stalled twice on interest rates, we still pay 0.25% more for our debt than the average South African. In theory it means there is room for us to slip another rate increase but at some point we will also be forced to increase rates.

Oil has also gone through the roof, in my view not because of production constraints, as many analysts would like us to believe, but only because of political considerations and market driven speculation. Take traders out of the equation and oil prices will return to below US$50 per barrel within a semester.
And then much closer to home, I also sense dark clouds approaching. The tempo of job creation is inadequate and no matter what we do, political pressures are building due to this backlog. I know we approved a very expansive budget, but I stick to my conviction that it was done for the wrong reasons and at an inopportune time. Growing the budget at a time when the whole world is clouded in uncertainty is like buying a very expensive car at the beginning of a rise in the interest rate cycle. That car will only become more and more expensive over a four-year term and so will our budget. Over the course of the current Medium Term Expenditure Framework, the money the government will dump into the economy will become expensive money in 12 or 24 months from now.
What we must never forget is that the cold economic facts one finds in financial reports and economic analysis always have an influence on the lives of ordinary people. We tend to forget that behind all the statistics, graphs, interpretations and projections are people who must make a living, raise a family and provide for the future in terms of savings. When we lose a significant employer like Ramatex, then it only adds pressure to a society already under severe pressure. Although I can't measure the social impact I receive reports on a daily basis of how dangerous it has become in Katutura for instance, during the night. And every single individual telling me these stories, link the rise in crime and the desperate situation of many families to the closure of Ramatex and the inability of the economy to create jobs at a faster pace.