I got reaction from far and wide on my very speculative piece on the advantages of reviving the German colonial planning for two more large reservoirs on the Fish River.
I argued that the groundwork for both these projects was done in the years between 1910 and 1915, and that, in a modern development framework, they will create positive spin-offs for social development on the ground, and they will bring a massive boost to the local capital market. Interestingly, most of the responses focused on the social development side and I want to explore the possibilities somewhat more in depth.

A reservoir of that size will create roughly 2000 hectares for irrigation under intensive farming practices. This is suitable for cash crop cultivation and, according to accepted practices, it provides three harvests in a year. Typical crops would be sunflower, seed maize, wheat, chillies, soya beans, a range of vegetables, grapes and even tobacco. A further 4000 hectares secondary agronomic land with limited irrigation will be available on the patches in between and surrounding the core area, usually for various types of grazing. Land under limited irrigation is normally not included in calculating the productive capacity of irrigation units. But taking the histories of other irrigation schemes in similar climates, a 12-hectare plot is considered the minimum to make a decent commercial living.
In theory, this gives us 166 plots per reservoir, each allowing a small commercial farmer to farm for profit. With two reservoirs, it means we will have just over 330 small farming units, each carrying a family.
Intensive agronomy is also labour intensive although it must be pointed out that the labour demand follows set cycles in sync with the growth stages of the crops. And some crops require more labour than others but on average a plot employs between 6 and 8 labourers on a permanent basis, and anything up to 50 or 60 people during peak production periods. Given a typical Namibian family of between 6 and 10 individuals, between 2600 and 3000 people will live off this land in a direct ownership framework. Each scheme should create permanent employment for around a thousand people, and during peak periods, I estimate that more than 8000 people will work the land.
This will provide a substantial boost to income for the residents of that part of the Karas region.
In my previous commentary I have only discussed the financial effect on the capital market. With 166 plot per scheme, it also creates a huge venue for asset and land financing, bringing activity to an area where there is basically nothing to finance on a household level. Remember, the idea of irrigation plots is not founded on subsistence farming, on the contrary, each 12 ha plot, although minute by Namibian land sizes, is sufficient for a family to make a living which includes buying farming equipment, fertilizer, a car and a bakkie, hiring labour and taking care of all the other expenses a family normally incurs. And pay the water utility for the right to use it. This is not thumbsuck. It has been proven at Hardap and at several irrigation schemes in the drier parts of South Africa. The crucial thing is just that the water must be available.
Land prices will also see a massive increase. In the Karas region land typically sells for around N$65 per hectare. The moment you have a plot listed under an irrigation scheme, that same land easily goes to between N$15 000 and N$25 000 per hectare depending on the soil and the improvements. This becomes serious money. So serious that it creates a range of financing opportunities for Agribank as well as for the commercial banks.
With three reservoirs in the Fish River, water flow management will greatly improve. Three reservoirs enable the water utility to control flow and to ensure that the water is available throughout the year where it is needed. Here again, take the Gariep River as an example. When I was a child, this river was not considered perennial, especially in its lower reaches. It simply dried up for many months of the year. With a number of reservoirs upstream and with sophisticated water management systems, I have not seen the Gariep completely dry during the past 20 years. And it sustains vast irrigation lands both on our side and on the South African side. Overall the Gariep is not considered a big river, yet it produces far in excess of what we get from the Kunene or the Okavango, both rivers which are several times bigger than the Gariep.
Lets say for argument sake, we are talking about three reservoirs, each with a capacity exceeding 250 million cubic metres. Combined that will take us to three quarters of a million cubic meters. Now that is a lot of water. Skeptics may asks me where all that water will come from. This is where nature is coming into play. With a marked shift in rainfall patterns, the Fish River has become an important artery for conveying excess floodwater to the Gariep. When the Fish River is in flood, it pours about 6000 cubic metres per second through its gulley. That figure is comparable to the Zambezi when it is low. Granted, these floods last only for two or three days, but it still is a massive amount of water discharged through this natural canal and it often happens more than once a year. If we capture some of it, we harness the water's potential and we start the process we need to give substance to my dreams of a self-sustaining Karas region.