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La Nina slowly growing 28 Sep 07 PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

For the past seven months, the state of the Pacific Ocean has been progressing towards the identity of a full-blown La Nina. This development has taken some time and is, so it seems, far from complete.
Consistency of weather maps, surface and upper air, sea-surface temperatures and under surface correlation, strengthened trade wind flow and extent of their push and, the final result: that of weather patterns consistent with the La Nina-type pattern.

This full range appears to be set and “just growing”.
What this means for the local weather pattern is not amounting very much though. The normal weather range begins in our skies some month to six weeks further along the calendar line.
So Namibia sits as an anxious spectator as the weather curtain slowly rises.
What is on stage and has been a consistent feature is the ready ability for the South Atlantic anticyclone to slip round the landmass, rather than across it, when pushing its leading edge (a cold front) eastwards. This same core of high barometric readings has readily attained the 1030 hPa pressure and, just as readily, extended a ridge down to the Antarctic weather arena. This position on the weather stage bodes positively for the forthcoming season: its ability to remain constant would be consistent with the La Nina mode: it's rather like the “one hand washing the other” instance. Simultaneously, the upper air patterns have been in a likewise favourable mode. The expectation for alto-level cloud patterns to appear and reappear on a more frequent basis leads on from this.
The great concern is what does translate as practical weather, which in our case means rainfall prospects?
La Nina does not automatically mean “rain”. It does mean that rainfall prospects are enhanced by the presence of more favourable surface and upper-air weather patterns as opposed a series of unfavourable patterns. Our rainfall season shows a likely start during November, particularly with consistency commencing in our northeastern parts, roughly from Grootfontein to Katima. The ability to monitor this growth and consistency would receive total strength from regular, daily, upper air ascents and their radiosonde records. Our input, in this regard, is nil; in such a weather pattern, this ability would have even more substance, not only for local value but also for regional values too.
The further outlook remains positive. Of all the prognostic models, only that of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography foresees a return to an ENSO event.
What will global warming's influence be? We'll have to wait to see.

 
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DATE

Fri 14 Nov - Thu 20 Nov 2008
Volume 22 No.44