|
For the past seven months, the state of the
Pacific Ocean has been progressing towards the identity of a full-blown La
Nina. This development has taken some time and is, so it seems, far from
complete.
Consistency of weather maps,
surface and upper air, sea-surface temperatures and under surface correlation,
strengthened trade wind flow and extent of their push and, the final result:
that of weather patterns consistent with the La Nina-type pattern.
This full range appears to be set and “just
growing”.
What this means for the local weather
pattern is not amounting very much though. The normal weather range begins in
our skies some month to six weeks further along the calendar line.
So Namibia sits as an anxious spectator as
the weather curtain slowly rises.
What is on stage and has been a consistent
feature is the ready ability for the South Atlantic anticyclone to slip round
the landmass, rather than across it, when pushing its leading edge (a cold
front) eastwards. This same core of high barometric readings has readily
attained the 1030 hPa pressure and, just as readily, extended a ridge down to
the Antarctic weather arena. This position on the weather stage bodes
positively for the forthcoming season: its ability to remain constant would be
consistent with the La Nina mode: it's rather like the “one hand washing the
other” instance. Simultaneously, the upper air patterns have been in a likewise
favourable mode. The expectation for alto-level cloud patterns to appear and
reappear on a more frequent basis leads on from this.
The great concern is what does translate as
practical weather, which in our case means rainfall prospects?
La Nina does not automatically mean “rain”.
It does mean that rainfall prospects are enhanced by the presence of more
favourable surface and upper-air weather patterns as opposed a series of
unfavourable patterns. Our rainfall season shows a likely start during
November, particularly with consistency commencing in our northeastern parts,
roughly from Grootfontein to Katima. The ability to monitor this growth and
consistency would receive total strength from regular, daily, upper air ascents
and their radiosonde records. Our input, in this regard, is nil; in such a weather
pattern, this ability would have even more substance, not only for local value
but also for regional values too.
The further outlook remains positive. Of
all the prognostic models, only that of the Scripps Institute of Oceanography
foresees a return to an ENSO event.
What will global warming's
influence be? We'll have to wait to see.
|