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Understanding weather...not predicting PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   
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Understanding weather...not predicting
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What happened?
For much of the country, we were spectators of weather events occurring on our doorstep, but we did get the draught as the events were blown past us.
The first cold front brought cooler air across the south, a brief clearance of the continental haze across central Namibia, but little else.

The second event saw the expected cut-off vortex form above the sub-continent's west coast and drift eastward. The inflow of tropical air was visible as a layer of alto-level cloud, which was to be carried away eastward towards the core of this vortex above Karoo and bring thunderstorms, some heavy falls too, to central South Africa. The significance of this is that with the currently favourable southern Hemisphere weather pattern, the day-to-day events are conforming to the normal range for this time of year.
Sitting on the west side of this cut-off vortex, much of the country had an invasion of cooler, if not cold, air. This arrived during Wednesday, bringing nighttime minima down to single figures, 4oC at Hosea Kutako for instance and even to zero in sheltered parts of Windhoek. Daytime maxima were in the 20oC range in the far south. These temperatures are certainly on record for this time of year, but this year has seen so much warmth, so early, that it comes as a surprise to find this brief reversal of a temperature trend blowing in. But, again, this is representative of the La Nina influenced weather pattern.
While cooler weather occurred in the some two thirds of the land, the north saw the high range of temperatures persist. Detail of heat in the high 30's, just short of the 40 mark, comes from the all of the north from the Kaokoveld eastward. Such heat invites the intrusion of cooler air, from the east, which means moister air. This inflow, coupled with the input of tropical air drawn south by the distant cut-off vortex, saw afternoon, at least, cloud development in the northeast. Light showers were forecast, Katima measured 1.1. This is, again, in line with a normal climate pattern.


 
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DATE: Fri 19 Dec -
Thu 08 January 2009
Volume 22 No.50