Friday, May 24th

Last update10:49:02 AM

You are here: Home Weather Understanding Weather - not predicting -

Houses by the thousands

A massive housing development programme, which will see a major facelift of the ...

From ECB to Energy Regulator

The transformation of the Electricity Control Board to a broader Energy Regulato...

NDC invests in solar energy

NDC invests in solar energy

The National Development Corporation (NDC) has invested N$850,000 in a solar ene...

Low-cost satellite internet from AfricaOnline

Low-cost satellite internet from AfricaOnline

High speed internet literally anywhere in the country, is what AfricaOnline is o...

NamWater to sign deal with AREVA

NamWater to sign deal with AREVA

After years of negotiations, the national water utility, NamWater has finally si...

Understanding Weather - not predicting -

What happened?
This past week an unusual synoptic pattern has held sway across the southern hemisphere. A major anticyclone with core pressures well above 1030hPa straddled the Date Line (180o) in the south Pacific while on our side, a complex low pressure pattern covered most of southern Africa and the southern oceans.
Both high and low pressure systems have been static for this period. Static in position but active within themselves: anticyclonic strength ensured a consistent flow to maintain La Nina’s, positive oscillation, and dominance of global weather.
The complexities of the vortex areas see one core deepen, drift somewhat eastward while in the cold, unstable polar air behind it a secondary vortex quickly forms, weakening the older core, then the same cycle is repeated. The effect of this pattern maintained a zonal flow throughout the troposphere (surface to 40000 feet) above southern Africa.
The unusual feature is that these differing systems have held their geographical placing while whatever else may be on the weather map either by-passes or collapses while these two major systems remain.
The other unusual feature is the global situation on either side of globe: the high and the low. Again, the effect saw a limited, if not absent, eastern Atlantic anticyclone, and similarly an absence of the western Indian Ocean anticyclone.
This departure from the norm means there is no lower level moisture input from the Indian Ocean, so with no push from the east, the heat-low pressure belt across southern Africa remains static ensuring that over Namibia there has been an advection of bone dry southerly air. This limits daytime temperatures but with no anticyclonic thrust it cannot undercut the heat-low. Without convergence, there is no cumulus cloud and no rain!
The thin layer of cloud visible has too little moisture but its presence offers hope for improvement as November wears on.
What’s coming?
The vortex pattern persists. The weak South Atlantic anticyclone remains limited throughout the period and because there is little ability to ridge round the continent, any development of a cell away to the east is restricted. Any prospect of late Spring showers depends on the persistent heat-low generating an upward convective extension to tap the adjacent moister air mass gathering above much of Zambia, linking with the equally adjacent Congo air mass then to advect this combination into our Kavango area or further west.
Current outlooks show a mixed set of patterns across the northern mid-subcontinent. Much of the data available is based on satellite images showing cloud coverage and direction of movement. Other observational sources in that area are, largely, non-existent. This data provides the grist from which computer models are built. Otherwise, it is up to a weather observer to assess what is seen to be present and offer an outlook regarding what the current situation will be able to evolve. The heat factor is seen to be increasing and its effects, as outlined earlier, offer a prospect of showers into the new week. n the south west, temperatures will be considerably cooler with a fresh southwesterly wind as a result of the high ridging in from the south Atlantic.

Articles In This Category
Weather
What happened? Sadly Sandy took the weather headlines but gave two pertinent practical pointers regarding Namibia. As a source of energy, wind has...
Weather
What happened? With the double-barrelled impact of global warming and the induced change of climate, much of our conventional knowledge of climate,...
Weather
During November and December, atmospheric conditions over the equatorial Pacific changed from neutral to a weak La Nina, with current forecasts...
Weather
What happened? That the changing climate brings a range of varying aspects clustered under the same roof becomes more and more obvious, not only...
Weather
What happened? With the gradual transition from autumn to winter in the southern hemisphere, a more typcial (expected) weather pattern is slowly...
Weather
What happened? Every weather map has detail from which each and every observer tries to interpret just what factors are about to emerge for the area...
Weather
What happened? ”Weather” this week caught the early bus to arrive one day early. While quite active weather persisted  across the northern...
Weather
Weather
What happened? The rumble of thunder across September skies offers an augury of contrasts for the now and the future. Historically disturbed weather...
Related Articles
Weather
What happened? At an unusual time of the year we have seen, one way or the other, a departure from synoptic patterns prevalent across the southern...
Weather
 What happened? That the world’s weather patterns are at odds with themselves seems to be a common consensus. Primarily the cause is to be...
Weather
What happened? We have seen an interesting hiatus in the development of weather patterns variously around the world as year 2011 progressed. Seasons...
Weather
What happened? Summer begins with December. From one aspect at least, a start is made to summer as pressure patterns move toward a summery stance....
Weather
What happened? This week was marked by a cut-off low over the Orange River in the south and a broad trough of tropical moisture moving in from Angola...
Latest Articles
Headlines
Entrepreneurship is said to be the main driver for economic growth hence the need for promoting and training entrepreneurs especially those engaged...
Headlines
A massive housing development programme, which will see a major facelift of the country’s informal settlements, is in its final stages of...
Headlines
The transformation of the Electricity Control Board to a broader Energy Regulator is well on track with the final industry adjustments taking place....
Editors Desk
My views on the informal economy are regularly sought by policy makers and entrepreneurs alike. The reason is rather straightforward: by all...
Weather
What happened? Major disparities are prevalent across the three dimensional atmospheric range as revealed by the synoptic charts for surface levels:...

General News

Setting

Diversify faster - !Gawaxab

The MD of Old Mutual’s Africa Operations, Johannes !Gawaxab has called for an accelerated diversification of African eco...

Readmore

DBN CEO position advertised end of May

DBN CEO position advertised end of May

The vacant CEO position of the Development Bank of Namibia (DBN) will only be advertised at the end of this month, board...

Readmore

Special Focus

Setting

IJG reports on vehicle sales

IJG securities have compiled a report on vehicle sales for the first quarter of the year. According to the report, new v...

Readmore

Air Namibia passengers happy with Airbus A319-100 regional aircraft

Air Namibia passengers happy with Airbus A319-100 regional aircraft

The decision by Air Namibia to buy two new Airbus A319-100 aircraft is beginning to reap dividends for the airline in so...

Readmore

Markets

Setting
Bank Windhoek goes public

Bank Windhoek goes public

Bank Windhoek Holdings Limited (BWH) announced on 15 May 2013 that the company will list all its issued ordinary shares ...

Readmore

Fitch Revises NamPort’s Outlook to Positive

Fitch Ratings has revised the outlook on Namibian Ports Authority’s National Long-Term rating to positive from stable. T...

Readmore

Editors Desk

Setting

How many billions can the mattress hold?

My views on the informal economy are regularly sought by policy makers and entrepreneurs alike. The reason is rather str...

Readmore

Like all asset bubbles this one too will pop. When, is an open question?

Two major game auctions took place during April. At the Erindi auction, there were many animals offered which can only b...

Readmore

Columns

Setting

This Week In The Khuta - A sex strike will not help solve rape!

Recently there have been reports of Namibia experiencing a high number of rape cases including so called passion killing...

Readmore

Innovation - The innovation process – Part 1

Background
In the previous article I discussed the measurement of innovation and laid down some basic metrics.  In e...

Readmore

Community and Culture

Setting
Helping more children to read

Helping more children to read

The Christina Swart-Opperman Aids Orphan Foundation Trust and Book Den this week launched the ‘Reading for Life’ project...

Readmore

FNB Wellness for charities

FNB Wellness for charities

The FNB Wellness Team recently handed a donation of groceries, toiletries, clothes and toys that were collected within t...

Readmore

Speak your mind

Setting

Spyl reiterates religious and moral education not the Bible

The SWAPO Party Youth League (SPYL) stands in agreement with Education Minister Dr. David Namwandi’s rejection of the at...

Readmore

Is Namibian national security guaranteed?

The reported violation of the Namibian air space by 12 foreign light aircrafts is not only shocking but is a serious con...

Readmore

Leisure

Setting
Offbeat - 16 May 2013

Offbeat - 16 May 2013

http://pierremare.blogspot.com

 

The villains in James Bond and Indiana Jones stories share similar traits: they want...

Readmore

Film Review - Blitz Patrollie

Director: Andrew Wessels
Screenplay: Kagiso Lediga
Cast: David Kau, Joey Rasdien, David Kibuuku, Kagiso Lediga, Chris Fore...

Readmore

Sport

Setting
Warriors ready for the ring

Warriors ready for the ring

A major boxing tournament will take place in Windhoek at the beginning of August.
At a press conference held by Warriors ...

Readmore

Bikers cycle Namib Desert

Bikers cycle Namib Desert

The Windhoek Lager Namib Quest MTB challenge scheduled to take place from the 19th to the 24th of this month, will see 2...

Readmore

Weather

Setting

Understanding Weather - not predicting - 17 May 2013

What happened?
Major disparities are prevalent across the three dimensional atmospheric range as revealed by the synoptic...

Readmore

Understanding Weather - not predicting - 10 May 2013

What happened?
With the gradual transition from autumn to winter in the southern hemisphere, a more typcial (expected) we...

Readmore

Environment

Setting

Mutorwa calls for action to address environmental management

The Minister of Agriculture, Water and Forestry, Honourable John Mutorwa has called on all stakeholders to take positive...

Readmore

Cheetah cubs born in Okonjima Nature Reserve

Cheetah cubs born in Okonjima Nature Reserve

Earlier in April, AfriCat saw the first ever cheetah cubs to be born in the Okonjima Nature Reserve since the establishe...

Readmore

Agriculture

Setting
Update on Hartebeestloop auction

Update on Hartebeestloop auction

Cattle farmers are invited to the sixth annual Hartebeestloop Bonsmara auction on the farm of Dr Joggie Briedenhann. Thi...

Readmore

Ministry to avail tractors for crop growing regions

Ministry to avail tractors for crop growing regions

The Ministry of Agriculture, Water and Forestry has announced that it is currently in the process of buying more tractor...

Readmore

Education

Setting
NAMCOL launches e-learning portal

NAMCOL launches e-learning portal

The Namibian College of Open Learning (NAMCOL) has launched Notesmaster Namibia, a freely accessible e-learning platform...

Readmore

Poly Rector honoured

Poly Rector honoured

One of the historic universities in the United States of America, the Lincoln University of Pennsylvania, has awarded th...

Readmore

Tourism

Setting
Summit to be biggest marketing effort yet

Summit to be biggest marketing effort yet

The Adventure Travel World Summit scheduled to take place in Windhoek and Swakopmund from 26 to 31 October this year, wi...

Readmore

Singing lodges eye tourism expo

Singing lodges eye tourism expo

As part of the talent search leading up to the final song competition, five choirs participated in the Kunene regional h...

Readmore

Health

Setting
Confusion over PSEMAS private hospital cover

Confusion over PSEMAS private hospital cover

Members of the state medical aid fund, PSEMAS, are being asked to join a new private hospital scheme to cover them again...

Readmore

Hochland Roundtable 154 Medic RUSH goes to Tsumkwe

Hochland Roundtable 154 Medic RUSH goes to Tsumkwe

Standard Bank this week handed over a sponsorship of N$300 000 to the Hochland Roundtable 154 Medic RUSH (Rural Upliftme...

Readmore

Mining

Setting
Namdeb supports Oranjemund chamber

Namdeb supports Oranjemund chamber

A Memorandum of Understanding was recently signed between Namdeb and the NCCI branch in Oranjemund to promote harmonious...

Readmore

Rossing retrenchments finalised this month

The retrenchment exercise currently underway at the country’s oldest uranium mine, Rossing Uranium, will be finalised by...

Readmore

Retail

Setting
Well done, Pick n Pay

Well done, Pick n Pay

Henry Feris, Managing Director of Pick n Pay Namibia has expressed his delight at the recent announcement of its South A...

Readmore

Focus on the price of milk

Focus on the price of milk

A striking display in Shoprite Katutura comprising a synthetic cow and full cream milk, is the main focal point in a Nam...

Readmore