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In the previous article, I offered a
definition in the Namibian context to describe a so-called wet spell. In this
article, I discuss certain qualifications to that definition.
In the definition of a wet spell, the
overall benchmark is rainfall over 3 consecutive days or more, comprising 60mm
across the 3 days, at least, and with one of these days producing a measure of
25mm, at least. This is the basic benchmark from which to consider all
appearances of wet spells. This may seem like splitting hairs but in a country
as dry as Namibia, often an entire season may depend on one or two wet spells.
As my analysis of measured daily rainfall
across all Namibian stations proceeded the extension of the days coupled with a
commensurate and appropriate rise in the running total had to be incorporated
into an extension of the basic definition.
This depended on an increase in the running
total of 20mm for each day, at least. For instance, in the records there are
many instances of say, 20 mm, 55mm, one dry day, and then 19mm again. This
still qualifies as a wet spell since the total of 94 mm exceeds 20 mm times
four (80 mm) and there was one day with more than 25 mm.
On our rainfall scene, from the wettest
parts to the edge of the hyper-arid Namib, this appears to be a solid
foundation from which to work.
To extract usable and practical information
from almost 100 years of rainfall data across as much as 1500 stations, it
becomes necessary to incorporate a degree of flexibility. This usually applies
to the data from a number of adjacent stations in the same area where the
recorded falls at one station may not qualify as a wet spell but corroborating
data from the surrounding stations certainly indicate that there was a wet
spell in the area during that particular period. The opposite is also true. One
single excessively wet day may look like a wet spell but comparing the data of
nearby stations for that period, it often becomes clear that the heavy fall was
a fluke.
But the flexibility range needs be kept in
the wings until a point is reached in that local analysis where the query arises
about, say, the 25mm, 18mm, and 12mm range of wet days, or the 20, 24, 15mm set
of wet days. In other words, while the initial benchmark remains in place,
local values can well be entertained positively when local analyses are made.
Wet spells can also be identified where,
over a number of days, the range is dominated by one excessively wet day
coupled with two lesser falls: 10mm 55mm and 13mm, for instance. By benchmark
standards, this will be noted in the Wet Spell column, but, when an areal analysis
is performed, it can become very obvious that the station (a dot on the map)
was lucky enough to have had that 55.6. Adjacent stations barely got to a 10mm
fall on that day.
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