What happened?
After months of the same repetitive cycle, at last the winter weather pattern has broken and in the past few days positive movement became discernible.
The cold front sequence finally made its impression. The anticyclonic push behind the front brings cooler, often moister, air deep into the interior.

We felt the wind and, as happened last weekend, this new air cleared the thick haze and, following another anticyclonic push, brought enough moisture to enable afternoon cloud to form. Daytime heat creates convection; this pushes moister air to the condensation level and shallow clouds form. From my vantage point, I saw on Tuesday evening some very positive cloud patterns proving convection within the cloud band which was not associated with surface heat, showing increased turbulence within the moist air.
This smacks of a touch of tropical air input although it is still very early in the season for such input. Next to this added bit of cloud excitement, very light rain could be seen just beneath the piece of cloud. This fall was about 1000 feet down before it evaporated into the dry air. It did not last long, but it was a positive sign that the overall air picture is edging toward summer patterns.
The anticyclonic pattern prevails in the upper air; moist air creeps in beneath this dry air zone which prevents convection from building further. This dry air overhang is very typical for the time of year which marks the end of the winter upper air season. It is envisaged that this pattern will either break up completely or move away within the next few weeks. This will enable moist air to penetrate in considerable depth and will mark the start of the first summer rains.
What's coming?
The new cold front and its broad upper air trough reach the Cape by Friday. Behind this the anticyclonic flow will, according to the temperature models, push colder air into southern Namibia, as far as the Windhoek and Gobabis areas. There are some indications that this trough is active enough to draw in moist, tropical air. The rainfall potential is fairly positive if the sequence fulfills its computer-bound promise. The north stays hot.
Further, on the western Atlantic, a strong anticyclone with a ridge southward to South Georgia progresses eastwards and, by Tuesday, is very close to the sub-continent. With this very cold air input, a cut-off vortex can form west of the Orange River estuary. This is still some 5 days away, but some models indicate considerable activity. In October 2005, a similar pattern occurred causing a very wet day in the Maltahöhe district. If next week's event develops, it can be a paler copy of that event.