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La Nina still no guarantee of good rain PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   
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La Nina still no guarantee of good rain
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All indications are that La Nina conditions are developing in the Pacific Ocean. Most forecast models are already incorporating this fact into their predictions, assuming that La Nina will increase in strength as we near year end.
La Nina is the opposite of El Nino, which got its name from its signature occurrence: - the arrival of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean on the coast of Ecuador around Christmas.

 El Nino indicates warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over very large areas in the Pacific Ocean. It has a severe effect on the entire global climate. La Nina indicates colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Currently, La Nina is still weak, only about 1 degree Celsius cooler than usual.
With the remarkable changeability as observed across the past 12 months, this overall wariness must be seen as awareness that all is not right where the climate of the planet is concerned and that pressures never before experienced are exerting a pressure the magnitude of which is equally inexplicable.
Overall, the US government's meteorology agency, NOAA, predicts favourable, or at least normal to above normal, rainfall for southern Africa, based on the weak La Nina development, as already in evidence. NOAA predicts La Nina will remain until autumn next year and grow stronger (colder surface water), as the current season advances.
Back home, the resultant weather patterns continue to exhibit a La Nina-type pattern. Because the winter season is still with us, the full manifestation is incomplete, but the readiness of the South Atlantic anticyclones to extend their southward ridges to the Antarctic (remember the cold blasts during winter?) is a promising feature. This instigates the north-south-north airflow which is capable of bringing a considerable volume of maritime air northwards and then carrying it westwards into the subcontinent, with summertime heat and resultant convection, thunderstorms will have a good supply of moisture for their development and may result in good rainfall. This moister and cooler input provides the ability for undercutting, where the colder air slides in beneath the warmer air, assisting the convection process considerably.


 
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DATE

Fri 28 Nov - Thu 04 Dec 2008
Volume 22 No.47