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All indications are that La Nina conditions
are developing in the Pacific Ocean. Most forecast models are already
incorporating this fact into their predictions, assuming that La Nina will
increase in strength as we near year end.
La Nina is the opposite of El
Nino, which got its name from its signature occurrence: - the arrival of warmer
water in the Pacific Ocean on the coast of Ecuador around Christmas.
El
Nino indicates warmer than normal sea surface temperatures over very large
areas in the Pacific Ocean. It has a severe effect on the entire global
climate. La Nina indicates colder than normal sea surface temperatures in the
Pacific. Currently, La Nina is still weak, only about 1 degree Celsius cooler
than usual.
With the remarkable changeability as
observed across the past 12 months, this overall wariness must be seen as awareness
that all is not right where the climate of the planet is concerned and that
pressures never before experienced are exerting a pressure the magnitude of
which is equally inexplicable.
Overall, the US government's meteorology
agency, NOAA, predicts favourable, or at least normal to above normal, rainfall
for southern Africa, based on the weak La Nina development, as already in
evidence. NOAA predicts La Nina will remain until autumn next year and grow
stronger (colder surface water), as the current season advances.
Back home, the resultant weather patterns
continue to exhibit a La Nina-type pattern. Because the winter season is still
with us, the full manifestation is incomplete, but the readiness of the South
Atlantic anticyclones to extend their southward ridges to the Antarctic
(remember the cold blasts during winter?) is a promising feature. This
instigates the north-south-north airflow which is capable of bringing a
considerable volume of maritime air northwards and then carrying it westwards
into the subcontinent, with summertime heat and resultant convection, thunderstorms
will have a good supply of moisture for their development and may result in
good rainfall. This moister and cooler input provides the ability for
undercutting, where the colder air slides in beneath the warmer air, assisting
the convection process considerably.
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