Menu Content/Inhalt
Home arrow Understanding Weather arrow Understanding weather...not predicting
Understanding weather...not predicting PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

What happened?
The establishment of heat continued to take its seat across much, but not all, of Namibia.
The far north has probably set records not for just daily maximum temperatures but also for the continued and unabated duration of mid- to upper 30oC temperatures.

While such temperatures are to expected from October, at least, through to late February, depending upon rainfall occurrence, these past few days saw the transition from the official end of winter, 31 August, to the start of Spring, 1 September. Such heat is not associated with this time of year; but then, as many other parts of the world have, and are, experiencing, unusual to excessive heat will be traceable to the ascending influence of global warming.
Unusual heat is, when it occurs, written up as being a heat wave. In the Temperate zones these occur when a stationary anticyclone advects Saharan air some 10 to 15 degrees of latitude beyond its normal latitudes. Such heat waves rarely last longer than a week. But this is something different; this is increased daytime temperatures, limited overnight cooling and generally warmth ahead of its time on the climatic and calendar scales.
For the areas further south, The daytime excesses are more limited: some 30oC is reasonable for the time of year, but the overnight radiation heat loss rarely brings temperatures below 10oC, this too is rather early for such pleasantly warm early morning temperatures.
Further south, our far south has seen the various cold fronts and their colder air influence bring much cooler weather across almost alternate days. Maximum temperatures have been even below the 20C level. It is not a regular feature of our weather to record the high 30's in the north and below 20's in the south.
The colder air influence stems from the persistent development of the South Atlantic anticyclones to have a ridge, round which the air circulates, extending far into the southern latitudes. This airflow travels from the 60S latitude to our skies in a time range barely longer than a day: not much time for any warming to occur!
What's coming?
We are in the latitudes of the sub-Tropical High Pressure Belt and the new upper extension of the next anticyclonic core becomes established above the sub-continent during the new week.
At this stage, it is expected that very little change from the weather sequence of the past week will occur.
Heat and some wind by day, warm nights are the symptoms of this pattern. The far south will experience two cold fronts bringing in colder air, briefly, by the mid-week. The near south will have a happy medium between the warmth of mid-Namibia and temperature variation of the far south. The risk of veld fires will persist.
Pleasant weather for tourists is the summary.

 
< Prev   Next >

DATE: Fri 19 Dec -
Thu 08 January 2009
Volume 22 No.50