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Rather like that very early now-called
'soap opera': 'The perils of Pauline”, the perils of La Nina could be today's
analogy set in the 'will she or won't she' see-saw category.
The latest Sea Surface
Temperature (SST) data shows La Nina standards across the far eastern
equatorial Pacific.
It shows a stationary tendency across the
central Pacific (the western range of the La Nina SST measure). Below surface
temperatures continue in the colder than normal range, cloudiness in eastern
Pacific skies is below the normal: indicating drier air together with reduced
convection while the indicators of the Southern Oscillation show no oscillation
(the normal or standard situation). This set of indicators is all in the 'will
she' stable.
However, the aspects of the outlooks remain
less positive. The computer models and their analysts find difficulty in
leaving the 'won't she' status.
The practical weather situation supports
the 'will she' standpoint. By now, the Indian Monsoon season is drawing to its
close, but the reports of torrential rains and subsequent flooding have been
flooding in for the past weeks and, most recently, the third major river, the
Irrawaddy, has joined the flooding fraternity. Further rains have made wet
headlines in Vietnam; even into mainland China reports of heavier storms have
been heard.
The east African, Kenya and Ethiopia, rains
have brought floods to that part of the continent. The Sahel region, often cited
for its dry potential, has received consistent rains. For some months now, our
local marine weather maps have shown the tendency for the anticyclones to
extend ridges to the Antarctic continent thus emphasizing the north-south-north
air flow associated with a La Nina influence.
However, from the computer standpoint, the
very recent memory of the un-discerned ENSO development of just under one year
ago, its failure to keep to the prediction together with its rapid switch to
the opposite, a more La Nina-prone situation, cannot be dismissed. The models
did not grasp this rapid on-again off-again turn of events. When there is an
unstable base, it is more than likely that products based on the regular
standard will have an element of disarray. The unstable base is, I do feel, the
aspect of and influence of Global Warming inducing a measure of climate change.
To expect those dedicated analysts to have this aspect fully sorted out is
asking quite a lot. The aspects are not fully described and thus their impact lacks
definition. Yet the weather world and its watchers expect outlooks, so the
hesitancy can be well understood.
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