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Understanding weather...not predicting PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

What happened?
Last Friday the cold front became rather more active and, as weather activity normally does, so it brought wind to emphasize what we may feel, but cannot see.
Wind means that there is weather pattern movement and this movement meant that as quickly as it had arrived, so would the same pattern depart.

The weekend brought warming weather and saw that pattern established for the remainder of the week.
Warming weather also meant the introduction of summer-style heat for the far north with, according to readings measured, temperatures in the middle 30oC range. Such temperatures are more likely to occur from about a month ahead, rather late September than late August.
The ability for unusual heat, which also means heating up the lowest layers of air, to create a “heat low” is a regular expectation.
Heat low means that an area of lower barometric pressure will become apparent on the weather map. These are prepared in the forecast office some 6 times a day from 03 hours GMT to 18 hours GMT. Weather map creation are timed in Greenwich Mean Time to provide cohesion in times world wide. So while 00 GMT may not demand too much attention in our part of the world, across the Far East and the far west, too, this is the busy time of day. But the weather pattern cohesion is established and the daily routine for a particular time zone carries on.
So the 12 and 15 hour GMT will show this decline in pressure across those areas where excessive or unusual heat is being experienced. Should this trend persist for a number of days, there will follow an influx of air from areas of higher pressure towards this now quite well marked area of lower pressure. As the inflows persist, some will be cooler and drier air, but another flow can be somewhat cooler but moister. The opportunity for an active vortex, providing a swirling motion to the air as it spirals upwards around the centre of lower pressure and clouds, convective clouds, will form and the likelihood of thunderstorm(s) become real.
For this full development to happen, this time of year is still very early.
What's coming?
During the next few days 3 weak cold fronts reach and pass the Cape. The last one, roundabout Sunday evening, can bring cooler air, at least, to the far south, but only temporarily.
Otherwise quite balmy weather will persist, with warming daytime temperatures across the country.
The cold front activity should see coastal low development and coast-wise movement with the likely intrusion of fog into the Namib.
A strong anticyclone on the far West Atlantic should arrive by midweek driving an active cold front. The northward extent of this arrival can include our south, at least.

 
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DATE: Fri 19 Dec -
Thu 08 January 2009
Volume 22 No.50