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La Nina's positive signs: but not yet centre stage |
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Written by John Olzsewski
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Page 1 of 3
The identity of the La Nina event features
colder than normal Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the eastern and central
Equatorial Pacific, these anomalies will be reflected in cooler sub-surface
temperatures and the pressure patterns are normal, meaning that the oscillation
feature is absent.
Weather patterns around the southern
hemisphere will react accordingly. The tele-connexion ability of global
climate-cum-weather is axiomatic: one cannot have two-left legs, so as to
speak.
Yet the computer models and their analysts
are still hesitant about the anticipation of a La Nina event.
This hesitancy is prompted by the computer
models failure to indicate the rapid collapse of the late 2006 ENSO and the
very rapid switch to almost La Nina conditions across some 2 months: a mere 8
weeks. The functioning weather watchers and their various model inputs are
finding some problems, disagreement between various model inputs, which are
causing concern among these authorities who, so rightly, expect to set a
standard and maintain it. The cause for the apparent misdirection signs given
can well be due influences set up by aspects of global warming and its
disruption of regular patterns as previously identified. This concern is all to
their credit in aiming for as correct and outlook supported by worthwhile
comments.
The current doubts can be emphasized by the
current fact of the westward limit to the stretch of the colder SST water to
support this doubt. These surface waters are driven by stronger surface winds,
a La Nina benchmark, but these winds, the far north and the far west of the
South East Trade Wind flow pattern, have not, apparently, the drive or ability
to go the full, expected distance to be expected from a developed La Nina
event.
Yet the global weather patterns look at the
La Nina-hopeful situation more positively. At a distance, the downpours and
resultant floods of the Indian Monsoon have a La Nina positive aspect.
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