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Understanding weather...not predicting PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

What happened?
The winter months have provided somewhat varied examples of weather. That there should be cold or at least colder days is to be expected, yet the temperature readings for the northern half of Namibia have been closer to a warmer phase than a colder scene. Yet people who spend time outdoors are inclined to note a “cold feel” to the air.

Temperature is recorded as the reading taken from the Stevenson Screen, at a distance it looks like a glorified bee-hive, and is the Dry Bulb reading and given as the “temperature in the shade”. In summertime, during hotter spells the man-in-the-street may well adapt this to being the “temperature in the shade, but no shade!” What this temperature reading cannot supply is the (in winter especially) chilling effect of the movement of air: a breeze is not too bad but wind, let's say some 10 knots (about 15 to 17 kph), will create a chill effect. We human beings respond negatively to this condition. At worst, when people are exposed but poorly protected, this wind-chill factor has led to their demise: frozen to death is the sad epitaph. Late winter season cold snaps can seriously harm newly-shorn sheep for another instance.
The cold which swept the far south, with a few light showers, the resultant clearance and two windy days followed, was the chief feature of the past week. When the day's maximum temperature barely reaches 15C a cold day (and the wind!) will have been experienced. Warmth by day, at least, prevailed across the rest of the country.
What's coming?
A settled weather pattern is assuming control of the interior of the sub-continent. This began moving in during Thursday and seems likely to persist until mid-week at least.
This controlling feature is an upper air anticyclone which drifts in by Friday and its presence will steer the cold-frontal system, due to reach the Cape by Monday night, southeastwards.
The upper air has not been an example of the normal winter pattern during this winter. The frequent incursions of upper air troughs, jet stream flows and mobile anticyclones have been on centre stage most of the time. This can well be part of a manifestation of world-wide unusual occurrences. Global weather patterns appear to be in flux at this stage. The computer models, for example for North America, where the daily input of detail is considerable, are presenting varying scenarios. So, even at this distance, the tele-connections of weather look to be in consistent order. So for Namibia, there is a week of warmer weather, sunny of course, to be expected.

 
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DATE: Fri 19 Dec -
Thu 08 January 2009
Volume 22 No.50