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What happened?
The winter months have provided somewhat
varied examples of weather. That there should be cold or at least colder days
is to be expected, yet the temperature readings for the northern half of
Namibia have been closer to a warmer phase than a colder scene. Yet people who
spend time outdoors are inclined to note a “cold feel” to the air.
Temperature is recorded as the reading
taken from the Stevenson Screen, at a distance it looks like a glorified
bee-hive, and is the Dry Bulb reading and given as the “temperature in the
shade”. In summertime, during hotter spells the man-in-the-street may well
adapt this to being the “temperature in the shade, but no shade!” What this
temperature reading cannot supply is the (in winter especially) chilling effect
of the movement of air: a breeze is not too bad but wind, let's say some 10
knots (about 15 to 17 kph), will create a chill effect. We human beings respond
negatively to this condition. At worst, when people are exposed but poorly
protected, this wind-chill factor has led to their demise: frozen to death is
the sad epitaph. Late winter season cold snaps can seriously harm newly-shorn
sheep for another instance.
The cold which swept the far south, with a
few light showers, the resultant clearance and two windy days followed, was the
chief feature of the past week. When the day's maximum temperature barely
reaches 15C a cold day (and the wind!) will have been experienced. Warmth by
day, at least, prevailed across the rest of the country.
What's coming?
A settled weather pattern is assuming
control of the interior of the sub-continent. This began moving in during
Thursday and seems likely to persist until mid-week at least.
This controlling feature is an upper air
anticyclone which drifts in by Friday and its presence will steer the
cold-frontal system, due to reach the Cape by Monday night, southeastwards.
The upper air has not been an example of
the normal winter pattern during this winter. The frequent incursions of upper
air troughs, jet stream flows and mobile anticyclones have been on centre stage
most of the time. This can well be part of a manifestation of world-wide
unusual occurrences. Global weather patterns appear to be in flux at this
stage. The computer models, for example for North America, where the daily
input of detail is considerable, are presenting varying scenarios. So, even at
this distance, the tele-connections of weather look to be in consistent order.
So for Namibia, there is a week of warmer weather, sunny of course, to be
expected.
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