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Understanding weather...not predicting PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   
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Understanding weather...not predicting
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What happened
The sequence of cold weather and overnight frost came and partially went. A return to warmer days was in place by Tuesday: but persistent wind limited the day-time warmth. The new cut-off low arrived and came into its own over the Karoo during Wednesday.

For the week, the expectation was that cloud would develop, in the daytime at least, and that some showers were possible from this development. The cut-off vortex and the northward extending upper air trough would provide enough disturbance, excite the potentially unstable air in which the cloud would form, to enable shower-cloud development. This did not happen.
Although clouds were present from south of the Etosha basin and eastward from Tuesday until Thursday, the active system was far away to the east over Botswana and the eastern half of South Africa.
The regular approach of a cold front brings about the development of a weather feature unique to southern Africa and our coast in particular. As the cold front and its trough approach, so the wind strength increases, blowing over the escarpment towards the, still distant, trough. The air flow creates a situation rather like the experience of sheltering behind a wall from wind. The wind ascends the wall and creates a very localized circular wind flow pattern just behind the wall, or so-called eddies. This describes the wind flow patterns experienced along our coast, from about Walvis and further south. On the synoptic weather map this is described as a “coastal low”. As the cold front nears, so the coastal low “runs” south, along the coast, ahead of the cold front, and then slips right around the southern part of the continent to peter out just north of the Maputo Bay area.
Despite east-wind conditions in the interior, it collapsed as it approached the coastal low, hence no Oosweer at the coast but in the wake of this disturbance a north-westerly flow arrives. This brings the moist, fog-producing air as evidenced in Walvis and Swakop. This sequence occurred almost every day since last weekend.
What's coming
Inland and this far north in the subcontinent, we will be bystanders as the new cold front approaches and invades the far south.


 
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DATE: Fri 19 Dec -
Thu 08 January 2009
Volume 22 No.50