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Understanding Weather, not predicting 09 Nov 07 PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

Our weather changed its costume twice in quick succession over the past two weeks. A week ago, the weather stage seemed fairly settled, with fronts moving quickly into the south but departing just as rapidly. This week the cold front had other ideas. As it arrived, the upper air trough deepened and became more active. The surface trough gained strength, thus advancing much further north than expected. These developments took shape across a 12-hour or so time space. In the much colder air behind, either a cut-off vortex developed or a secondary low developed. The effect was the same. Bearing in mind the upper air trough and its induction of moist alto-level air the rainfall prospects in its area of activity boomed. Rains began during Saturday, drifted eastward and continued (across much of the south) into the new week. This pattern was very similar to events in October 2005.

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Understanding Weather, not predicting 02 Nov 07 PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

We lay in a weather see-saw as the main zone of activity wandered across our skies from west to east and then reversed. This has placed Namibia on the western edge of an alto level anticyclone, The flow from approximately north to south meant a favourable importation of Congo air. This moist belt, as seen above Windhoek on Monday morning, can be more than 3000 feet thick. It is often evidenced by the thick white vapour trail behind airliner jets.With surface heating during the days, convection currents have by late afternoon generated accelerated development in and through this layer resulting in thundershowers within the rather narrow band of weather-friendly air. But useful rain fell from the escarpment area eastward.

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Understanding Weather, not predicting 26 Oct 07 PDF Print
Written by John Olzsewski   

The introduction of a layer of moist air, sufficient to contain alto-level clouds and with a depth in which sufficient vertical development could cause local showers was maintained. Not only maintained but also expanded as trough-line development, south of us, approached and pulled in more tropical moisture. There was sufficient activity to see isolated cumulonimbus cloud form and precipitate their excess moisture: rain. Although slight showers did fall at several places, Nabas, in the far southeast, had a 20mm fall. Central Katatura received a 13mm measure.
This pattern increased in its intensity as a major cold front arrived by Monday.
The clearance was suitably brief and the return of some upper air moisture was evident by mid-week.
The significance of all this is that such weather sequences smack of the La Nina weather expectations. The anticyclone pushing Monday's cold front tracked along almost 40oS and extended its ridge down to Antarctica: the resultant airflow has brought snow to the high Drakensberg.

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